? ? ? ? 在7月28日畜牧業(yè)畜牧業(yè)信息化2019峰會(huì)上，農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部全國(guó)畜牧總站處長(zhǎng)/信息中心主任田建華做了題為《2019年上半年全國(guó)飼料生產(chǎn)形勢(shì)分析》的報(bào)告，中國(guó)飼料行業(yè)信息網(wǎng)記者現(xiàn)場(chǎng)整理!
一、我國(guó)飼料工業(yè)發(fā)展概況
1、近10年飼料總產(chǎn)值、總營(yíng)收和產(chǎn)量情況：
2008年飼料總產(chǎn)值4258億元 ，2018年飼料總產(chǎn)值8872億元;
2008年飼料總營(yíng)收4128億元 ，2018年飼料總營(yíng)收8689億元;
2018年飼料工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值8872億元，其中，飼料加工品占88.7%，飼料添加劑占10.6%，飼料機(jī)械占0.7%;
總產(chǎn)量：2008年1.37億噸，2018年2.28億噸，連續(xù)4年產(chǎn)量破2億噸，連續(xù)9年居世界第一，約占全球總量的1/4。
2、2018年飼料生產(chǎn)情況：
2018年配合飼料比重90%，濃縮占7%，添加劑預(yù)混料占3%;
2018年：豬料9720萬(wàn)噸，蛋禽、肉禽、水產(chǎn)、反芻飼料分別為2984萬(wàn)噸、6509萬(wàn)噸、2211萬(wàn)噸、1004萬(wàn)噸，其它飼料360萬(wàn)噸;
2018年從飼料品種來(lái)看，豬料占43%，禽料占42%(蛋禽13%、肉禽29%)，水產(chǎn)10%，反芻4%，其它2%。
近5年(2013-2018年)，我國(guó)配合飼料、添加劑預(yù)混料累計(jì)增長(zhǎng)分別為21%和2%，濃縮飼料累計(jì)下降25%。
3、從近5年品種結(jié)構(gòu)變化來(lái)看：
2013-2018年，肉禽、水產(chǎn)、反芻累計(jì)增長(zhǎng)29%、16%、15%;豬料、蛋禽料累計(jì)增長(zhǎng)13%、3%，意味著肉禽、水產(chǎn)和反芻飼料品種未來(lái)的增長(zhǎng)潛力和增長(zhǎng)速率。
豬、肉禽飼料相互替代效應(yīng)較為明顯，2008年豬料占比27%，禽料36%，2018年豬料占比41%，禽料占比31%;
2019年1月豬料占比46%，禽料占比30.9%，6月份豬料占比34.9%，禽料占比35.3%。
4、從2018年飼料生產(chǎn)區(qū)域情況看：
上千萬(wàn)噸的省份有11個(gè)，占全國(guó)75%左右，分別是山東、廣東、廣西、河北、江蘇、湖南、遼寧、四川、河南、湖北和江西;
第二梯隊(duì)是300萬(wàn)噸以上的，分別是：福建、安徽、吉林、浙江、云南、內(nèi)蒙古、黑龍江、陜西和重慶;
飼料產(chǎn)量最少的10省份是：海南、陜西、天津、新疆、北京、貴州、上海、甘肅、寧夏和青海;
配合料前10?。荷綎|、廣東、廣西、江蘇、湖南、河北、湖北、四川、遼寧、江西;
濃縮料前10?。哼|寧、黑龍江、河北、山東、云南、河南、吉林、內(nèi)蒙古、四川、陜西;
添加劑預(yù)混料前10省：山東、廣東、河南、江西、湖南、北京、江蘇、四川、河北、天津;
飼料企業(yè)加工數(shù)量(有證的)：2008年13612家，2018年8012家，企業(yè)數(shù)量趨于穩(wěn)定，單場(chǎng)規(guī)?？焖偬岣撸渲心戤a(chǎn)10萬(wàn)噸以上的飼料企業(yè)從2008年187家增加到2018年656家，他們的飼料產(chǎn)量占全國(guó)飼料總產(chǎn)量的近50%。
二、2019上半年全國(guó)飼料生產(chǎn)形勢(shì)分析
2019年上半年飼料總產(chǎn)量9306萬(wàn)噸，累計(jì)同比下降0.5%;配合飼料8583萬(wàn)噸，累計(jì)同比上升0.3%，濃縮料508萬(wàn)噸，累計(jì)同比下降9%，添加劑預(yù)混料214萬(wàn)噸，累計(jì)同比下降7.8%。
1-6月豬料產(chǎn)量3630萬(wàn)噸，同比下降14%
1-6月仔豬料產(chǎn)量1259萬(wàn)噸，同比下降24.9%
1-6月母豬料產(chǎn)量476萬(wàn)噸，同比下降24.7%
1-6月育肥豬飼料產(chǎn)量1655萬(wàn)噸，同比上升0.9%
1-6月蛋禽飼料產(chǎn)量1303萬(wàn)噸，同比上升10.5%
1-6月肉禽飼料產(chǎn)量3279萬(wàn)噸，同比上升12.4%
1-6月反芻飼料產(chǎn)量442萬(wàn)噸，同比上升4.9%
小結(jié)
1、上半年全國(guó)飼料生產(chǎn)平穩(wěn)，生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)適應(yīng)性調(diào)整優(yōu)化，反映出上半年畜產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)能力總體穩(wěn)定，市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)有保障。
2、從飼料生產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)看，生豬產(chǎn)能與2018年上半年相比明顯下調(diào)，主要原因是受非洲豬瘟疫情影響。肉禽、蛋禽和反芻動(dòng)物養(yǎng)殖發(fā)展勢(shì)頭良好。
3、豬價(jià)回升、補(bǔ)欄沒(méi)有增加，近兩個(gè)月有下調(diào)力度加大的趨勢(shì)。
4、蛋禽、肉禽產(chǎn)能顯著高于去年同期，養(yǎng)殖積極性高。
5、受非洲豬瘟影響，養(yǎng)殖端對(duì)飼料需求不旺，主要飼料原料玉米豆粕弱價(jià)運(yùn)行。
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